In the world of emerging technology, prognostication is a tricky business. Things can change quickly in the tech business, where one breakthrough - in research, application or even legislation - can trigger a cascade of rapid consequences.
But what the hey - we'll give it a shot. Here are ten tech trends to watch for in 2015, including developments in personal stealth wear, immersive virtual reality and artificial intelligence.
1. Mobile Payments
Mobile payment systems - in which you use your smartphone in place of your credit card - are expected to become more widespread in 2015, with Apple Pay and competing services like CurrentC staking out new territory.
The upside is that mobile payment systems can make transactions much faster and potentially reduce credit card fees. The downside is that mobile payment systems open up perilous new territory in privacy and security concerns. Which leads us to our next item.
2. Personal Stealth Tech
Mobile payment services like Apple Pay communicate with point-of-sale devices by way of near-field communication (NFC) technology. As with older radio-frequency identification (RFID) systems, these transactions are vulnerable to hackers who can steal your information just by being in physical proximity. (One of 2014's most popular video games, "Watch Dogs," was based on this kind of scenario.)
In response, several different kinds of stealth wear and accessories are expected to become widely available in 2015. In addition to RFID-blocking wallets for your credit cards, look for jackets, bags and even jeans designed to block wireless signals to your phone or other mobile device. Or you can go right to the source with privacy-first devices like Silent Circle's Blackphone or the Boeing Black.
3. Virtual Reality
The much-anticipated Oculus Rift virtual reality head-mounted display is expected to finally hit stores in 2015, and should bring with it a fleet of new VR technologies and applications.
Sony's Project Morpheus will be a direct competitor in the realm of gaming, but the prospect of a truly viable VR headset is already spinning off new weirdness. Several film production studios have sprung up promising to bring new and retrofitted 3-D virtual reality movies directly to your eyeballs.
4. Internet of Things
Image via Rickscloud
The Internet of Things, or IoT, is the emerging designation for the next wave of Internet connectivity systems that will network not just our computers and devices, but virtually everything else on the planet. The term actually refers to a range of integrated technologies including wireless communication, augmented reality, robotics and microelectronics.
Current examples include Internet-enabled home appliances that let you control your refrigerator from your smartphone. But it could go the other way, too - your fridge telling your phone what you need to buy when you're out grocery shopping. IoT principles are at the core of future transportation initiatives breaking new ground in 2015 - like automated city traffic grids for self-driving cars.
5. Real-Time Translation
In December, Skype released the first iteration of its real-time translation system for spoken English and Spanish. In the accompanying video, featuring students from the U.S. and Mexico, the system works just like in the sci-fi films. You speak your piece in English, the computer instantly translates to Spanish, and vice-versa.
Skype says it hopes to roll out additional languages soon and industry watchers expect more breakthroughs in real-time translation in 2015. Decades of research in speech recognition are coming together with machine learning and "deep neural network" A.I. technology to facilitate new possibilities. The real killer app - instant voice translation on your smartphone - is one of the most exciting possibilities of 2015.
6. Artificial Intelligence
Image via YouTube
Hollywood and Stephen Hawking both warned about the dangers of artificial intelligence in 2014, but that hasn't stopped researchers from going forward with plans for the new year. Artificial intelligence continues to be one of the busiest areas of study in emerging technology.
For instance, IBM's A.I. Watson - the former "Jeopardy" champ - has been working in the field of medical research for several years now. Advanced A.I. systems like Watson can mine decades of medical data in a fraction of the time it would take human technicians. In 2015, IBM hopes to deploy Watson's natural language processing and hypothesis generation in several additional industries through commercial and research partnerships.
7. Self-Driving Cars
The promise of self-driving cars has been motoring around for a few years now, but 2015 may well be the first calendar year that we see some real, on-the-street results.
Truly autonomous vehicles still have plenty of technological (and legislative) hazards to navigate, but many improved "driver assist" technologies are expected in 2015.
Volvo already has a car on the road that feature tech developed for self-driving. Its next-generation model XC90 sedan has built-in adaptive cruise control that maintains a set distance, in stop-and-go traffic, between you and the car in front. The park assist pilot allows the car to steer itself into tight parking spots.
8. Bendy Displays
The idea of flexible displays - screens that can be bent, twisted and even rolled up like a newspaper - is another one of those sci-fi ideas that keeps surfacing then submerging again. Functional flexible displays actually date all the way back to the 1970s.
But we should see some movement in 2015 as major players like LG and Samsung continue development on paper-thin OLED (organic light-emitting-diode) panels. The technology is being explored for both small screens (smartphone) and large screens (television). OLED displays are much more durable than traditional screens as well, promising future displays that are both tougher and more flexible than the one you have today.
9. Online Security
In the wake of the epic Sony Pictures hack and a scary increase of online security breaches, you can expect to see a significant surge in products and services that offer to help protect your money and information online.
Developments on the horizon include improvements in biometric authentication, credit cards that use quantum physics, and more subscription services that act as pre-emptive identity theft protection systems. Also watch for companies that store your information - from social media to shopping - to beef up security protocols, on both their end and yours.
10. Drone Madness
Drones will continue to swarm the news headlines in 2015, for good or ill, thanks to their potential utility in hundreds of industries - and some percolating issues around regulation. According to a recent Washington Post report, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration has 167 pending applications for commercial drone projects, with "hundreds more" expected in 2015.
Amazon is aggressively testing drone package delivery systems, insurance companies hope to use drones for inspections, and industrial concerns want to use them for monitoring facilities. Meanwhile, artists and filmmakers are finding new uses for UAVs, and a huge market is emerging for personal camera drones. The skies are about to to get very crowded.
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