It's that time of year again, folks. Let's make some wild prognostications about the tech industry and play grim reaper for the devices and tech trends we don't expect to make it to 2020.
There are plenty of reasons tech becomes obsolete. The tech world operates just like the natural one: weeding out the chaff through cold, unsentimental natural selection. Buying habits, user behavior, societal trends, and the forward march of technological innovation always leave a heap of failed or outdated products, companies, and trends in the dust.
1. Essential Phone. Ugh. Essential isn't dead, but it's on life support. The high-end modular smartphone didn't sell well, which prompted the company to lay off staff and refocus on a new product in October. Of course, that was before the New York Times investigative report into Google's handling of sexual harassers, including Android and Essential founder Andy Rubin. And yet, Essential still announced a $149 headphone dongle last month. It's time for Essential and Andy Rubin to go away.
2. Initial Coin Offerings. ICOs haven't died, but as regulatory agencies like the SEC have cracked down on scams and fraudsters and the crypto market as a whole has taken a nosedive, there are a lot less new, exorbitantly priced ICOs popping up than there were a year ago.
3. Apple iPods. Nope, you can still buy an iPod touch. As for any hope of buying a standalone Apple music player that's as compact and durable as my beloved iPod nano, we're all out of luck.
4. Anything Competing With Amazon. Well this one was a bit broad. Amazon has bought its way into everything from grocery stores and entertainment to pharmaceuticals, on top of expanding its dominant e-commerce empire. But the corporate overlord isn't infallible. Amazon recently shuttered its Amazon Restaurants food delivery service in the UK.
5. Snapchat Spectacles. Somehow...no! Not only did Snap release a version two of Snapchat Spectacles, but there are rumors of a version three.
6. Sony A-Mount. Nope, still kickin'.
8. Prisma. It still exists, but in the eyes of consumers, it's long since passed into the app heap of history. If you disagree and still use Prisma, feel free to sound off in the comments.
9. Manual Vacuums. Okay, so we didn't all throw out our vacuums in the past year. But the robovac revolution is coming…
10. Skype for Business/Wunderlist. Yep, these are gone and replaced by Microsoft Teams and Microsoft To-Do, respectively.
11. MoviePass. On death's doorstep. We're re-upping our death prediction this year.
12. The Internet. This one was symbolic, okay. The internet is still alive and as terrible a place as ever, but despite an ongoing fight to restore it, net neutrality is most decidedly dead.
Now, to this year's predictions.
1. MoviePass
It's been a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad year for MoviePass. Its parent company is on the verge of bankruptcy thanks to the service's fundamentally unprofitable business model of subsidizing ticket costs, and the MoviePass app itself has been an unmitigated dumpster fire of feature and pricing changes. The app has hiked prices, limited access to blockbuster movies, banned repeat movies, reversed its price hike and brought back the unlimited plan, briefly rolled out ticket verification, and now simply doesn't work in most theaters for most showtimes.
Amid a flood of cancellations, users who still try to use the app sometimes see available showtimes disappear in an instant with no warning. MoviePass opened the door to a new model for moviegoers, and its legacy will live on through competitors like Sinemia and new programs like Stubs A List brought about by the big movie chains as a response to disruption by MoviePass. But as for MoviePass itself, it's time for it to be put out of its misery.
2. Nintendo 3DS
Despite a rocky launch, Nintendo's last dual-screened handheld managed to have a phenomenal life. Its quality library of games even helped the system thrived once the 3D fad wore off. But that was almost eight years ago, and the smash-hit Nintendo Switch is now firmly the future of portable Nintendo gaming. - Jordan Minor, Geek.com Senior Editor
We've already had it confirmed there's no more mainline Pokemon games being made for it. We're already seeing Pokemon games appearing on the Switch, and the Pokemon developer has announced an RPG for Switch. And while new games are planned for 2019, there are also rumors swirling that Nintendo is considering a successor. It's clear that new-style Zelda went down a storm on the Switch, so I doubt that's heading back to the 3DS again. - Matthew Humphries, Senior News Editor
3. Facebook Watch
The clearest sign of Facebook Watch's coming demise is the fact that you have no idea what Facebook Watch is. Watch, the latest in a string of attempts by Facebook to steal YouTube's crown, will follow the same pattern as Facebook Live did: top influencers will abandon it as soon as Facebook stops paying them to use it. Everyone else will stop once Facebook's algorithm isn't favoring the content as much as it used to. Then Facebook, realizing they haven't reached a critical mass of users, will turn their attention to newer and shinier video products such as IGTV. The only chance Watch has at avoiding the axe is that Facebook prefers to bury features alive and build newer ones on top of their graves. Speaking of which: have you made your Lasso account yet? - Pete Haas, Social Media Manager
4. Small Smartphones
Palm Phone aside, the era of slim, compact smartphones that can fit in your hand is essentially over. Want an upgraded version of the iPhone SE? Too bad. Apple discontinued it in favor of ever-larger handsets like the iPhone XS and XS Max. Google's Pixel line, Samsung's Galaxy smartphones, and new flagship handsets from device makers such as OnePlus, LG, and Motorola are all getting bigger and bigger each year. Smartphone size isn't going anywhere but up, and we're all captive consumers with increasingly strained hands.
5. [Insert Your Favorite Google Service Here]
Every year, Google seems to kill off a much-beloved service with little notice. A few years back it was Google Reader; this year it was the Inbox email app and the Allo chat app. Google+ is riding into the sunset, too. What will it be next year? We'd bet on the company continuing to whittle down its redundant chat apps and rolling the features into other apps, like the Inbox app's smart compose and bundling features now in Gmail proper.
6. Tethered VR Headsets
We hope it happens this year, but for virtual reality (VR) to really take the next step, the industry needs to find a way to cut the cord and get rid of that bulky tether back to a PC or game system. Oculus Quest is coming next year to try to fulfill that promise, and it may mark the first step toward VR experiences that can support the graphics and processing to power an immersive experience that’s not limited by the length of a wire.
7. A Lot of Subscription Boxes
We're expecting some fails and consolidation in the now massively oversaturated subscription box industry. As our list shows, there are countless sub boxes now and they can't all thrive...even with D-list celebrities pumping out paid Instagram posts to promote them.
8. Faraday Future
The one-time Silicon Valley electric car darling has had a rough year. The startup has lost all of its founding execs one after another, laid off staff and cut wages by 20 percent, and now finds itself in the middle of a bitter investor battle that's starving the company of direly needed funding. Faraday’s Future is not looking bright in 2019.
9. Wired Power
Is this the year we finally get full-fledged wireless charging? We hope so. True wireless charging is coming, but as the delays in Apple's much-hyped AirPower wireless charging pad show, there are quite a few technical hurdles to making it work in a mass-market product. As Apple goes, so goes the tech industry. If AirPower does finally make its debut in 2019, it will signal the beginning of the end for wired power cords.
10. Life Support Alert: Snapchat
Snap continues to waste money on hardware no one wants amidst major issues in the flagship Snapchat app, from declining growth and contracting user numbers to its still-unpopular redesign and the tabloid trash fire that has become the Discover section. The public company’s stock price continues to dwindle, and in a leaked memo, CEO Evan Spiegel admitted that Snapchat rushed its redesign, "solving one problem but creating many others." Snapchat likely won’t go under in 2019, but barring a way to buck its downward trending engagement and achieve sustained profitability, it's not looking great for the ghost.
Things That Died in 2018
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